Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — The world financial crisis will lead to an important relocation of wealth across the globe. Not all emerging markets are poised to take advantage of it.
Latin America’s historic economic deficiencies, such as overdependence on commodity exports and severe budget constraints, are now combining with the rebirth of a flawed pro-government, anti-market mentality. If translated into economic policies, these weaknesses will hurt productivity, foster corruption and jeopardize the chances of Latin America strengthening its role in the global economy.
From 1970 through 2007, Latin America’s share of worldwide gross domestic product remained unchanged at a 5.7 percent, while Asia boosted its share from 18 percent to 29 percent, according to United Nations data.
In three decades, China increased its participation in the global economy sixfold, from less than 1 percent in 1980 to 5.9 percent in 2007, while India’s share more than doubled, to 2.6 percent. Latin America wasn’t nearly as successful. As a share of the world’s economy, Brazil fell from a peak of 2.4 percent in 1980 to 2.1 percent last year, Mexico from 1.4 percent to 1.2 percent, and Argentina from 0.94 percent to 0.77 percent.
These figures should be a wake-up call to Latin Americans. Between 2003 and 2007, the region was beguiled by what I like to call the four C’s: Commodities, Commerce, Currency and Credit.